Covid19 Seclusion Thread

rover4x4

Well-known member
Apr 21, 2004
5,228
45
41
North Carolina, Raleigh
Good god Chris. I understand somewhat the gloom and doom not being welcome. That said the insensitivity of that last post is OK? My co-worker's wife got laid off and they are worried that if this drags on they can't pay the bills/might lose the house. And this guy is worried about his bike ride? I'd say that's as bad a look for the forum as the bickering.


yeah I am a selfish MFer.
 

SCSL

Well-known member
Apr 27, 2005
4,144
152
My wifes in critical banking. Weird shit's going down for sure.

***hopefully this is allowed.

If you want to understand what's going on in the capital markets and why the Fed's liquidity guarantees are not working, this is an OUTSTANDING video to watch. Few disclaimers: 1) this is not "conspiracy theory", this is hard econ. Jim Bianco is a legit analyst. 2) he's actually very complimentary towards what the Fed is attempting to do. 3) his delivery isn't great but there's TONS of info, along with charts, in here for those who seek to understand cap markets and the broader economy amidst current conditions.


ETA: For those who aren't in this world, one thing to mention is that although the stock market gets all the publicity, the captial and credit markets dwarf the equities markets. Absolutely dwarf them. So much of the driving force behind economic trajectory is a function of what's going on in the capital markets.

Also ETA: Chris if this is a bridge too far for you, my sincere apologies. Just delete it. I posted for education value and general interest, not doom.
 
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rovercanus

Well-known member
Apr 24, 2004
9,643
244
Luckily my wife and my professions are deemed critical. Even my unofficial 2nd job is deemed critical. For all of you out of work I truly wish you well!
 

bri

Well-known member
Apr 20, 2004
6,178
152
US
I'm accustomed to traveling very frequently. Staying in hotels. Taking people out to dinner, etc. My company shut down travel and moved to remote work last week so, yes, stir crazy is setting in. On the good news side, and hopefully, Chris, this is ok, when this is all finally over (and of course at some point it'll be over), it's true that the economy will come roaring back. Figure me on the road: flights, hotels, restaurants, bar tabs, etc, and multiply that by the thousands or tens of thousands of people who do the same thing, plus all those people going back to bars and concerts and restaurants, etc - it's going to be epic. But in the meantime, while fully stocked up, I'm already stir crazy. But then it doesn't take much to make me stir crazy....

Just bought a new car and I don't have to drive anywhere, so I took her for a spin yesterday on some windy mountain roads just for fun. Can't remember the last time I did something like that "just for fun". So I guess that's a small thing, but a big positive.

Only other observation is that both my grown kids are in Denver and they're freaking out right now. One is a student and one works in a "non-essential" business, so lots of concern about what does this mean for them. I'll backstop them, but it's still stressful. They don't want help. They want to work.

My industry has been deemed "essential", so I can move around. But not sure I want to go anywhere until we're over the peak. Feels irresponsible to risk myself or others. Like most of you, I'm well stocked in ATF. But let's just hope this is a couple week thing and we get over the hump quickly!

I am too an essential worker, south of Denver (note to others in the area). Our company was really smart and started work at home 2 weeks ago.

I will do what I can to help anyone on dweb (especially those with old reputation, but I pretty much trust everyone unti they fvck with me). I don't check here regularly, but if you wish to exchange mobile numbers PM me. Even if not essential, taking care of friends is not illegal so generally I don't give a fvck what they tell me to do. Since my S.O. is immune compromised I am more more than germophone while out and coming back to the house.
 

bri

Well-known member
Apr 20, 2004
6,178
152
US
...
I like being able to focus on my work without the distractions of an open floor plan office, but I also miss being around my colleagues. I'm lucky that I like the people I work with.

Oh sheesh. I have 60 of your type that flood me with emails now. WTF were they doing when they were at work.

:)
 

bri

Well-known member
Apr 20, 2004
6,178
152
US
well crazy thing happened. People flooded the dispensary and liqueur stores and the mayor is now allowing them to stay open

I am amazed that it took this.....

If things get bad, my stash of jack and smokes will buy a lot of TP. I started stocking up beginning of Feb, never thought of TP. LOL.
 

SCSL

Well-known member
Apr 27, 2005
4,144
152
For all of you out of work I truly wish you well!
Man I'm with you. I know so many people in the hospitality industry from over the years: bar tenders, servers, hotel staff, etc. They're hurting. I tried to stay out and over-the-top support them with orders and tips right up until it all got locked down. I hope Congress can put politics aside and get some checks out to these folks who are out of work through no fault of their own.
 

SCSL

Well-known member
Apr 27, 2005
4,144
152
Hey since this is a "seclusion" thread, I'm just going to throw this down. If anyone out there plays Words with Friends, I am happy to spank you in Scrabble. Hit me up: Stone.Cold
 
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discostew

Well-known member
Sep 14, 2010
7,706
1,015
Northern Illinois
Since most universities are shut down my son stayed home after spring break. He's studying medicine at U of Minnesota Rochester.
He broke out a program that made a graph of the probable rate of infection and changes in the rate of infection could be manipulated to show the effects.
If by staying at home we can change the infection rate only 1 1/2 % will drastically change the amount of hospitalization or spread it out to a manageable load over a longer period. I think that's reason for hope.
Also today they say the # of new cases looks like it's trending downward in Italy, more good news.
As far as my being out of work temporarily, I don't really mind yet. I have a shop space near my house and I'm starting to make some progress on a 96 Disco. I'll post up some pics on a new build thread.
 
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brian4d

Well-known member
Dec 3, 2007
6,499
67
High Point, NC
I'll echo the remarks for people out of work. From our family to yours we wish you the best and hopefully we'll all pull through this together! For the naysayers of Emergency or Rainy day funds hopefully this changes your mind.
 
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brian4d

Well-known member
Dec 3, 2007
6,499
67
High Point, NC
***hopefully this is allowed.

If you want to understand what's going on in the capital markets and why the Fed's liquidity guarantees are not working, this is an OUTSTANDING video to watch. Few disclaimers: 1) this is not "conspiracy theory", this is hard econ. Jim Bianco is a legit analyst. 2) he's actually very complimentary towards what the Fed is attempting to do. 3) his delivery isn't great but there's TONS of info, along with charts, in here for those who seek to understand cap markets and the broader economy amidst current conditions.


ETA: For those who aren't in this world, one thing to mention is that although the stock market gets all the publicity, the captial and credit markets dwarf the equities markets. Absolutely dwarf them. So much of the driving force behind economic trajectory is a function of what's going on in the capital markets.

Also ETA: Chris if this is a bridge too far for you, my sincere apologies. Just delete it. I posted for education value and general interest, not doom.

Very interesting. Sounds like you're in the banking industry. You received letters from the Dept. of Treasury and Dept. of Homeland Security yet?
 

SCSL

Well-known member
Apr 27, 2005
4,144
152
Very interesting. Sounds like you're in the banking industry. You received letters from the Dept. of Treasury and Dept. of Homeland Security yet?
I’m on the RMBS side, non-depository. So all of our communication so far has been through the agencies and indirectly through counter-parties. We have had some state level communication, notably from the CA Dept of Banking which is getting written, somewhat open-ended commitments from bank and non-bank lenders regarding payment deferrals and collection activities. Presumably these commitments will determine who remains licensed in CA. Unfortunately, they will also impact credit availability and cost to CA residents if not adequately defined.
 

DiscoHasBeen

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2016
1,171
262
Indy
My wife has worked from home for the last seven years, give or take, so she's good. In fact they are running her ragged right now now because all the employees that now are working from home are turning to her for advice. I'm deemed essential and, judging from the traffic this morning so is most of the rest of the state. Governor said we'd try the honor system first them patrol if that doesn't work. So patrols it is it would seem.
 

JohnC

Well-known member
Dec 8, 2005
896
13
Tappan, NY
I'm in NYC and cannot work remotely. My wife is working from home and my biggest concern is getting sick and bringing shit home. I do ride a motorcycle in so I don't have to take public transportation but since I work in a hospital I'm sure I'll get sick.

Stay healthy everyone!
 
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fishEH

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2009
6,927
201
Lake Villa, IL
I am an essential service as well; potable water. There are 3 supervisors(including myself) and 24 maintenance workers. We split into three 8-man/1-supervisor shifts. Shift 1 works Mon-Tues 6am-4pm. Shift 2 We -Thurs, shift 3 Fri-Sat. We are able to deliver actual essential services this way and minimize cross exposure between shifts. The first and last hour of each day is spent wiping down/disinfecting surfaces and equipment. Everybody still getting paid 40.

There is noticeably less traffic on the roads here. I definitely feel for those in the service industry. But I also recognized 20 years ago how much I hated retail/service and made a conscious decision to pursue a career that wasn't in those industries.

I also feel a HUGE educational opportunity is being missed here. Situations like this is why people should save up their sick time and build an emergency fund of 3-6 months. There are far too many people living paycheck to paycheck (not just poor people either) because they won't sacrifice and live outside their means. They burn sick days like vacation days. Then Coronavirus hits and they have no time and no money and they look to the government.
 

pinkytoe69

Well-known member
Jan 14, 2012
1,689
182
minnesota
Situations like this is why people should save up their sick time

Is there an employer outside of the government that still let's you bank sick/vacation time at the end of the year?

I've never worked at a place with carryover of more than 5 days.
 

Tugela

Well-known member
May 21, 2007
4,754
562
Seattle
Is there an employer outside of the government that still let's you bank sick/vacation time at the end of the year?

I've never worked at a place with carryover of more than 5 days.

My employer does - a nonprofit with about 70 staff. I have unlimited carryover - it has to be this way. We don't have separate sick time and vacation time, it's all lumped into paid time off which we can use however we like/need to. This has trade-offs. When you're healthy, you get more time to go on vacation than you would if you had separate sick/vacation time accounts. But when you're sick, you think of your paid time off as vacation time and are more reluctant to use it as sick time. When you get to my stage of tenure in the organization you get 6 weeks of paid time off plus 10 paid federal holidays. That's 2 months of paid time off per year. The challenge is actually using it because I still have 12 months worth of work to get done. It's rare for anyone to use all their paid time off, hence the need for unlimited carryover.
 

SCSL

Well-known member
Apr 27, 2005
4,144
152
I also feel a HUGE educational opportunity is being missed here. Situations like this is why people should save up their sick time and build an emergency fund of 3-6 months. There are far too many people living paycheck to paycheck (not just poor people either) because they won't sacrifice and live outside their means. They burn sick days like vacation days. Then Coronavirus hits and they have no time and no money and they look to the government.
There's certainly truth to what you're saying. However, wages have not kept up with costs of living for a long, long time. This is acutely true, for varying reasons, with housing, education, and insurance. Could hourly / low wage workers in retail and service industries exercise more discipline? Sure. But the result won't have much impact when the average American spends 37% of their income* on housing (and that's average, mind you, not median).

Again, I completely get your point and I'm certainly not arguing against it. Just highlighting that at a certain level of income, it's extremely difficult to save money when you combine the cost of living increases with the occasional minor emergency like car problems, medical co-pays, etc.


*source: