I have this conversation with my "greenie" friends all the time. As if CO2 is the only pollutant. Describe to them/show them a picture of a nickel, copper or other rare earth mining operation? Now THAT'S pollution.
It's kind of like nutrition - people think "low fat" foods are healthy but they are eating a shit-ton of calories in the form of carbs. No bueno.
Oh, no doubt Panasonic are the leaders in the field of li-ion batteries. But 18650 cells are designed for low voltage/amperage out put. Even they know that. Ask
Harley. (they use
prismatic, not cylinder, cells from Samsung)
MatSci - That' what I do...But not this area any more.
Computer modeling - one of the biggest issues on battery life/efficiency for automotives is that fact that they only use a fraction of the battery capacity; they only get charged to say 80% and discharged to 20%; you're leaving 40% of the battery's capacity on the table. That's to prevent catastrophic failure and preserve long-term use. But they are using computer modeling to try and monitor electrical output of the individual batteries to be able to identify problems before they become problems. That should allow them to use more of the capacity more effectively. If they can increase the range of a car battery by 20% (or more) just using a computer algorithm? That's a win.
For electrical generation, I think solar is probably the best (maybe wind). But the cheapest (and environmentally cleanest) is crystalline silica, but it has poor efficiency. The high efficiency solar cells, like Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), are expensive and not exactly environmentally friendly to obtain (see above). This is where the MatSci needs to keep plugging away at - get more out of crystalline silica. But science is a long, hard slog (see below). 50 years of effort just resulted in doubling efficiency from 12% to 25%.
Then, you get back to the issue of energy storage
For that, I'm a fan of hydrogen fuel cells for portable energy. Create the hydrogen by hydrolysis of water using electricity from solar cells. Use the hydrogen as the "easily" portable energy source; convert back to electricity in the vehicle using the fuel cell - it goes back to water (using oxygen from the air). That said, I worked on membranes for fuel cells as an intern at Allied-Signal (now Honeywell). The chemist I was working with said they were expecting (hoping) fuel cells to be on the road in ten years. That was in 1991. (Then Bush II proposed the same thing - ca. 2002).
Since hydrogen has it's issues - see: Hindenburg - methanol fuel cells are an interesting option as well (although it generates CO2 as a byproduct - the horror!)
I think Musk is (mostly) a con man/huckster. But, I have to give him credit for SpaceX. They really are doing some truly innovative things.
There's not much to disagree with, there. I kind of look at Musk as John Romero. People like that typically do have the best intentions, but work themselves up on their own marketing. They just can't help it. When it works, they look like gods. When it doesn't work, they look foolish and greedy.
They're typically nice guys, though. Musk might be a bit more aggressive, but I work with someone like him; terrible family life. The man just cannot stop proving to himself he's worthwhile. It drives him to obscene levels of success and risk; and he moves on everything quickly. I've learned a lot dealing with people like that.
Musk had it rough growing up. I can see the obsession to get to the top of a ladder that can never be truly conquered. Space is a close second, though. If he can't be the wealthiest man in the world, he can at least go out with a bang.
Of course, I've always been a fan of people many find controversial.
I like Hydrogen because the infrastructure is already here, but it needs some upgrades and testing. We can transport it everywhere already, and oil companies are in a perfect position to laterally adjust their focus. Oil will be needed for a very, very long time, but hydrogen is about the only thing that can be used soon to have a similar "eat the whole animal" industry.
BP SunEsso McShell have the space, the money, and the expertise to engage Hydrogen. Indeed, the oil and natural gas companies are in the best position to leverage it, given their unique sea facilities. People say it's not efficient and it'll cause problems... I don't think they've ever seen an off-shore drilling platform in person.
I do want to see fuel cells mature. There is a lot of potential that hasn't been tapped. I'd also like to see both hydrogen combustion and traditional, diesel-electric power plants in cars instead of the current hybrid arrangements. The Volt was supposed to give us that, but it didn't. That's proven technology that just needs to be miniaturized; and we're pretty damned good at that now.
Solar will be the answer in the future, but as you've noted, it's not there yet. We have to get back to 80% research and 20% deployment.
A while back I was working on a new panel technology for a company, in that regard; as well as mobile and static energy storage concepts. They folded due to unrelated factors, though. Then I just kind of stopped and went on to something else. I may get back on that if I can muster the time and energy.
The panel looked to end up notably efficient. There's no way for me to build it, though; same goes for the batteries. New machines need to be built to manufacture the new materials. That's tens; perhaps hundreds of millions to make it happen. Without access to a much higher horsepower level of modeling and their ability to use it efficiently, I can't do much more.
There's just no way to push feasibility without that level of technology at my mercy. The shit's just plain too small. Even the hottest rig I have would crumble the second I tried to do that. Much better gear is needed, and experts to run it.
Those panels wouldn't have been cheap, but they weren't meant for consumer deployment; they were meant to start at farms and on large oil transport vessels, and bleed down to the consumer market over time.
Cheers,
Kennith