We need less arguing over the problem and more discussion as to the solution. I am not of the "it's just the flu bro" mindset. But it is an absolute fact that more damage will be done from many more weeks (let alone months) of economic near-shutdown than will be done from this virus if we do not figure out a middle ground between 5-6 million newly unemployed per week and woo-hoo let's all party. Can we at least start with that as a baseline for a more productive discussion?
Yes, at one end of the spectrum is let everyone get sick as fast as possible; at the other is lock down until a vaccine is developed.
And, yes, there is a middle ground.
It's what I said two months ago that looked like the way to go: What S. Korea did. And, it's the basis for every plan out there - Germany, US, etc.
We need widespread testing of symptomatic patients and contact tracing of who they came into contact with (and isolating those people). Antibody testing will also help ID those that were previously asymptomatic (completely) and those that were sick (but not confirmed).
None of these things (virus/antibody testing, contact tracing) are currently where they need to be, in the US. Virus testing is getting there (
TN announced yesterday that ANYONE can get tested, for free - that's where we need to be); antibody testing is just now being fine tuned/developed; there aren't enough public health staff to track and trace (
states are starting to build up the staffing). Places like S Korea/Sinagpore - and Germany - did it from the jump and they had success in really tamping it down.
But the fact remains that in parts of the US this is fairly widespread, and in others it's out there, but not widely spread. Stop social distancing now, before those things are in place - and it will be more than two weeks before they are - just means that the virus will resume it's rapid spread. You have to really tamp it down - not just slow it - before you can let everyone back out.
That's (hopefully) likely another month away. (See: Cuomo extended the lock down in NYS until then). Some places might go sooner, some later as the peak comes later for them (New Orleans, Detroit, S. Dakota).
To blithely state, "Just isolate the vulnerable," shows a complete lack of understanding of the severity, and seemingly randomness, of this virus - people of all ages, regardless of their current health, do get sick. A significant portion gets very sick. If we could just ID those that wouldn't, we'd solve this problem, but it doesn't work that way.
So, yes. There's a way out. But it won't be tomorrow and it will require a lot of work and coordination among hospitals, public health agencies, and government to figure out when areas of the country have a real good handle on it.