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  #76  
Old 06-13-2018, 05:57 PM
brian4d brian4d is offline
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GDP now follows blue chip economic indicators and not a particular region for starters Paul. Care to revisit the question?
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  #77  
Old 06-13-2018, 06:00 PM
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I'm not trying to prove anything. My question was real, not facetious. I'm just trying to understand. I looked around the country at all the other Reserve Banks to see what their forecasts were and none of them were as glowing as the Atlanta Bank. I read the article you posted and it never mentioned any kind of growth in the range of 4%. I'm not trying to be difficult, honestly. I just don't see where you're pulling numbers in the range of 5% for GDP in 2018 or 2019.
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  #78  
Old 06-13-2018, 06:08 PM
brian4d brian4d is offline
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I'm not trying to prove anything. My question was real, not facetious. I'm just trying to understand. I looked around the country at all the other Reserve Banks to see what their forecasts were and none of them were as glowing as the Atlanta Bank. I read the article you posted and it never mentioned any kind of growth in the range of 4%. I'm not trying to be difficult, honestly. I just don't see where you're pulling numbers in the range of 5% for GDP in 2018 or 2019.
Paul did you see the chart I posted about gdp now accuracy? Go take a look, I?m simply using their model only in conjunction with articles from the Wapo saying they have run out of names to describe how good the job numbers are. More jobs more product to some degree. That?s it. Only touting one source. Some models are aggressive like gdp now, I just think we?ll hit it, or close. Just giving you a hard time buddy, sorry.
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  #79  
Old 06-13-2018, 06:13 PM
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Look, isn't the hard time part of the fun? I think I said it in the post I made about all the other Reserve Banks in that Atlanta seems to be the outlier predicting numbers dramatically higher than just about any other source. But, just like you're always saying, "we'll see."
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  #80  
Old 06-13-2018, 08:50 PM
brian4d brian4d is offline
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Look, isn't the hard time part of the fun? I think I said it in the post I made about all the other Reserve Banks in that Atlanta seems to be the outlier predicting numbers dramatically higher than just about any other source. But, just like you're always saying, "we'll see."
I must admit, the turkey and gravy comment was great. I respected it. Satirical humor at its best.
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  #81  
Old 06-13-2018, 11:24 PM
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Quote:
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GDP now follows blue chip economic indicators and not a particular region for starters Paul. Care to revisit the question?
Ummmm...GDP = Gross Domestic Product

Not "selective regions/industry to make my camp look good" product.

And , yes it does follow a particular region. The United States in particular.

love how you cite an article that says 2.9%. Which, for us "numbers guys," is still less than 3%.
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  #82  
Old 06-14-2018, 08:18 AM
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Ummmm...GDP = Gross Domestic Product

Not "selective regions/industry to make my camp look good" product.

And , yes it does follow a particular region. The United States in particular.

love how you cite an article that says 2.9%. Which, for us "numbers guys," is still less than 3%.
I'm sorry Scott, I just assumed we all know we were referring to the United States. After all, as the thread title suggests, April was the best month in history for the U.S. budget.

Every time I read one of your thoughts I feel I get a little dumber.

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  #83  
Old 06-14-2018, 09:28 AM
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Quote:
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I'm sorry Scott, I just assumed we all know we were referring to the United States. After all, as the thread title suggests, April was the best month in history for the U.S. budget.

Every time I read one of your thoughts I feel I get a little dumber.
You might want to read what you write before you post it then...

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GDP now follows blue chip economic indicators and not a particular region for starters Paul. Care to revisit the question?
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  #84  
Old 06-14-2018, 09:34 AM
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You might want to read what you write before you post it then...
Why would I reference the GPD of another country Scott? That's not what we were discussing. Paul was referencing the GDP from other Feds across the country.

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  #85  
Old 06-14-2018, 10:13 AM
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What is Trump trying to hide by blaming Canada? The answer may be frightening.

In recent conversations here, European officials cast a more sinister light on what they think Trump has in mind in picking very public fights with America’s closest allies and the institutions they and the United States have created to instill some order and fairness in the international system. These officials fear that Trump is laying the groundwork for a U.S. decision to withdraw from the World Trade Organization, the 164-nation body that adopts and enforces global rules of trade and provides dispute settlement mechanisms when conflicts between nations arise.
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  #86  
Old 06-14-2018, 10:16 AM
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Why would I reference the GPD of another country Scott? That's not what we were discussing. Paul was referencing the GDP from other Feds across the country.

Which again, points out how you were just cherry picking data to fit your view since all the other feds are predicting ~3%, not 4.8%

Which also makes your statement about "regions" even more ridiculous because you are either assuming that the Atlanta Fed and St. Louis Fed are just predicting GDP for their regions (contradicted by the above statement), or you were just making spurious insults to Paul showing the other Fed region predictions to deflect from the fact that you picked an outlier prediction.
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  #87  
Old 06-14-2018, 10:17 AM
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There is not a bar set high enough, Brian.

Things going well = pissed off liberals.
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  #88  
Old 06-14-2018, 10:39 AM
brian4d brian4d is offline
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There is not a bar set high enough, Brian.

Things going well = pissed off liberals.
I know Dan. Best economy in decades. Un crossed the DMZ for peace talks with the South motivated by Trump (according to moon). Trump has great first meeting and breaks a decades old standoff. Korean war ends. Let me say that again to let it sink in with everyone. The Korean war needed and Moon thanked Trump.

(https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8324976.html)

and it's still not good enough. Here is the deal Dan. It's not so much of the negative spin being put on accomplishments it's why the spin is put in placed to begin with. It's simple if you think about it. What Trump has been doing must be minimized for any effort to win in November or take back the presidency next time around. Many never fathomed Trump would be making these strides. So much so Bill Maher actually wants to see a recession to knock Trump down a few. Incredible.
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  #89  
Old 06-14-2018, 11:01 AM
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Stop giving Trump credit for what Obama did.
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  #90  
Old 06-14-2018, 04:56 PM
brian4d brian4d is offline
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Trump's forecast of 4% GDP growth close to coming true as Americans spend tax-bill proceeds

Surging consumer spending is driving GDP well above prior estimates, and it is now tracking near 4 percent for the second quarter.

That's almost double the pace of the first quarter.

Economists say the consumer is seeing the impact of the tax cuts and is spending, as a result of more disposable income.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/trum...-proceeds.html

Thanks Obama.
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  #91  
Old 06-15-2018, 10:03 AM
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Shame all that great economic news doesn't contribute to a reduction in deficit spending by our fiscal conservatives.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...may-since-2009
Shit...it's spending like a liberal time!
Get your RINO on.
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  #92  
Old 06-28-2018, 09:09 AM
brian4d brian4d is offline
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ec...ing-2018-06-27

5%?
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  #93  
Old 06-28-2018, 10:38 AM
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You forgot this from the article:

Expecting the economy to grow that fast beyond the second quarter is a stretch, though. Incomes aren?t rising fast to enough to support such high levels of household spending, for one thing. Businesses are also getting skittish as trade disputes between the Trump White House and other countries intensify. Some dropoff in spending and investment is likely.

I thought those tax cuts were going to result in the greatest pay raises? That the trade wars are easy to win and we'd have no losers - just China, Europe, Mexico and those pesky Canadians?

Oh, and you forgot this headline from this morning. #cherrypicking:

First-quarter GDP marked down to 2% from 2.2%
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  #94  
Old 06-29-2018, 04:59 PM
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I think Kudlow had a stroke, not a heart attack. #fakenews #bullshit

Trump’s top economic adviser says deficit ‘is coming down rapidly,’ contradicting virtually all available data
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  #95  
Old 07-09-2018, 03:08 PM
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For the sake of the discussion, unemployment ticked up (despite decent job #'s). But that's ok.
Wage stagnation, still problematic...
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...-and-economics


Of course the real interesting news is Chinese currency changes but that's a different thread.
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  #96  
Old 07-09-2018, 04:01 PM
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For the sake of the discussion, unemployment ticked up (despite decent job #'s). But that's ok.
Wage stagnation, still problematic...
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...-and-economics


Of course the real interesting news is Chinese currency changes but that's a different thread.
Old news. More people entering work force. Welfare down. Wages to follow.
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  #97  
Old 07-09-2018, 04:12 PM
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Old news. More people entering work force. Welfare down. Wages to follow.
Unemployment has been at/below 5.5% (historically considered full employment) since Feb 2015. Still waiting on those wages to go up (which were supposed to already have happened due to the tax cut) - which makes this a strange situation.
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Dangerous time when our country is led by those who will lie about anything, backed by those who will believe anything, based on information from media sources that will say anything. Americans must break out of that bubble and seek truth.
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  #98  
Old 07-09-2018, 04:20 PM
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Unemployment has been at/below 5.5% (historically considered full employment) since Feb 2015. Still waiting on those wages to go up (which were supposed to already have happened due to the tax cut) - which makes this a strange situation.


213,000 new jobs created last month. Do the math.

Wages will follow.

As explained previously, you expect shit to happen 6 hours after it's announced. You have the waiting game of a 2 year old.
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  #99  
Old 07-09-2018, 04:28 PM
brian4d brian4d is offline
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As explained previously, you expect shit to happen 6 hours after it's announced. You have the waiting game of a 2 year old.
If you're happy and you know it clap your hands.

This happens instantly. -Clap Clap-

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  #100  
Old 07-09-2018, 05:19 PM
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As explained previously, you expect shit to happen 6 hours after it's announced. You have the waiting game of a 2 year old.
No, I'm the one saying that any economic policies implemented by THIS administration will take years to see the effects of. Unlike the Trumpets who were saying the tax cut (to businesses) would immediately mean higher wages and amazing growth.

Or that NK was a long game - that they've been playing this same game for decades. Not like the Trumpets who sound off that "maximum pressure" brought NK to the table and that they are going to denuclearize.

Nor have I said that a trade war would be short and easy to win. Unlike the Trumpets.

In fact, go back and look at the meme Brian's posted about all the "Accomplishments" Trump has done. Nearly all are bullshit pronouncements.

I've been the one saying that Trump's simple lines, platitudes and solutions were all bullshit. That the world is a more complex place than a bumper sticker slogan.

But you go on responding with the one sentence replies.
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