Car financing, show I pay it off?

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AndyThoma

Guest
Well I'm moving to MD and the Gaithersburg/Bethesda holds lots of secure government jobs. Not military, more like NIH, National stds labs, naval hospital, etc. So the market is stronger and more stable. Having said that, I could be in that area for only two years. My wifes PHD will be done and a post doc could take us to who knows where. So we are renting for at least the first year if not more. Besides with her student income and my income, buying a 400k -600k house in that area is stupid considering I could rent one of those same house for half of the cost of a standard morgage. My house sale here in SLC will land me with 70k of wind fall profits after all debt is paid. I'd rather put that money into investments/retirement and save as much as possible for the next couple years for a home. For the type of researh she is doing we have choices of SLC, San Fransico, Seattle, Iowa, Boston, and I think thats it. So we could be up and moving, house buying might be a poor choice for us in the next two years. My only issue around Bethesda is we have two 75 lbs dogs, so I really want a house to rent, I just hope to find one that isn't over $1800 a month. Which considering how much a house rental in UT costs, $1800 is just insane!
 

GadgetRick

Well-known member
Jun 17, 2005
255
0
If an economic crisis does happen, it will be precipitated by falling real estat prices. With the prolonged and historiclly-low mortgage interest rates, many folks have financed their ever-larger McMansions essentially on margin - with 95% (or greater) mortgage notes at variable rates. The situation is analogous to the period just before the Great Depression when investors were borrowing to buy more and more stock - which they assumed would *always* go up in value. When market values fall - and they will - these same folks are going to be upside-down WRT equity, and a rash of foreclosures nationwide will be the result. Some analysists have gone so far as to suggest this might be a good time to rent your home, with the proceeds from a current home sale parked somewhere really safe and ready to take advantage of the situation when real estate prices fall.
Since I sell mortgages I have a very good dea of what's happening with regards to real estate and rates. This is typical media, "the sky is falling," stuff. You cannot generalize housing values throughout the US. There are some areas which will be affected by a slowdown or even a slight downturn in house values. However, this is NOT the case everywhere. You hae to look at each area and look at what downward pressures (to values) there are as well as what upward presures there are. Currently, in the Northeast (and in that area in MD) here are the upward pressures:

-average income is relatively high
-stable job market
-a lot of jobs
-a lot of people wanting to move into the area
-not enoughhousing to support the number of people wanting to move in

Here are the downward pressures:

-interest rates rising
-the media says there's a bubble

I can tell you the values are far from falling in many areas of the US. And, if they do fall, that doesn't mean the world is over. It means you'll have a tough time getting enough money if you try to sell the house. It does not mean there will be a rash of foreclosures, that's not what causes foreclosures. If you don't pay your mortgage you get foreclosed on. We, as mortgage companies could care less if you're upside down in your home unless you want to refi it or sell it.

I hear people all of the time who keep saying this tuff and I've not seen it happening and there are no indicators (in m business) showing it's happening in every region out there although there have been some isolated regions where things have really slowed down.
 
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AndyThoma

Guest
Okay how do I fine a house for $1500 a month around Bethsda MD that isn't to big of a POS and not financing interest only? Or am I SOL? Prices are bit to high for us and our combined income is like $85k, Gaithersburg seems just as bad too. I guess if I don't mind a 2 hour commute I'd be in luck.
 

az_max

1
Apr 22, 2005
7,463
2
edthediscoman said:
I cannot see how the current market value can remain. In Cali its nuts. You can make 100K per year and not afford a starter home (as me how I know). My house sold 3 years ago for 305 and now is "worth" 750.....not reality I say!....
Ed


My ex G/f works in LA, lives in Huntington Beach. Her Grandpa bought her a house there, 1200^2 ft, 50's ranch style house, fixer-upper. $300,000. It's nuts

Glad I live in Az where my 1300^2 ft house only cost me $180,000 ;).
 

tbedon

Member
Apr 9, 2005
22
0
54
Baltimore, Maryland
Andy, I live and work in Baltimore, Maryland, just 30 miles or so north of Gaithersburg/Bethesda. I am in the title/real estate business. In terms of your original question regarding your car loan, think of it this way...in the amortization schedule of payments, you are at a point now where each payment you make is largely going to pay off principal. The effective interest rate on your current payments is much lower that the 5% on your note. You are in effect enjoying a very-close-to-interest-free-loan right now. This would be an argument for NOT paying off your auto loan. Having said that, you also need to consider your cash flow and what that payment COULD be doing for you in an account at Smith Barney or another investment house. You will certainly be able to "beat" 5% with a good investment adviser, and with your impending move to one of the most expensive counties in the country, your cash flow will become all-important. This is an argument for paying off your auto note and investing what you normally would have paid each month along with your $70K from your home sale. Most investment houses have some sort of automatic debit program where a certain amount is automatically debited from your checking account each month and invested in your Roth IRA for you. Take advantage of that type of program. You won't miss the cash, it will be an atuomatic debit, and you will enjoy the benefits of dollar-cost adveraging as you buy additional shares each month. In terms of the housing market in suburban Maryland, GadgetRick hit the nail on the head. There is tremendous job growth in this section of the country and housing values have continued to escalate (though not as rapidly as over the past 2 to 4 years with rates creeping upward) as more people move to the region for new jobs. Housing is in limited supply...basic economics then takes over. Rates are increasing, however, they are still quite low. The feeling here in this area is that for at least the next 12 to 24 months, values will continue to increase, but at a slower pace as long-term rates continue to increase. Job growth is the single-most important factor in keeping the prices where they are now and protecting against a down-turn in housing values in this market region. The general rule of thumb is that if you plan to be in any new area for at least 5 years then you should consider a home purchase in lieu of renting. The other feeling is that you may not want to "sit this one out" as the US stock market has been lack-luster recently and a real estate investment that you can also live in could earn more over the same period of time. In the very least, you will be investing the bulk of the proceeds from the sale of your current home and should ask your financial advisor these same questions as he or she will have the whole picture and be better-able to help you decide what is right for you and your family over the next copule of years.

Tony
 

MTN_rover

Active member
Feb 17, 2005
26
0
kingsport, TN
awesome yeah free yourself and get out of debt, its cool we have some more dave ramsey fans on here. I have all his books and listen to him on podcast on a normal basis.
 
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AndyThoma

Guest
Tony- thanks for the words of advice. My mother in law has hooked me up with her financial advisor. He has done a great job for her so I think I can trust him. My current interest is to be ready to buy a house in a year from aug 06. I don't want to buy a house blind from slc. So a year lease buys me time to know if I'll live in the area for more than 2 to 3 years and see where I want to live.

Since I want the coveted ECP fork so bad I may have to live in VA...
 

GadgetRick

Well-known member
Jun 17, 2005
255
0
Okay how do I fine a house for $1500 a month around Bethsda MD that isn't to big of a POS and not financing interest only? Or am I SOL? Prices are bit to high for us and our combined income is like $85k, Gaithersburg seems just as bad too. I guess if I don't mind a 2 hour commute I'd be in luck.
Just probably isn't going to happen unless you have a large sum of money to put down. The values of homes are just too high to do this. You MIGHT find a condo or something which would keep you in that price range but even that would be difficult at best.

One thing many people don't consider when they look at what their monthly outlay will be is the tax writeoff. You'll be writing off the interest and taxes on the property (in almost all cases). So you'll get some of that monthly money back. Not that it makes it any easier for you while you're paying it.

Values are just plain high and they will just go higher over the years. Real estate is still one of the best long term invesments there is. They're just not making any more land.

Also, very nicely said Tony. It's better advice coming from someone who's actually in that area, too.
 
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AndyThoma

Guest
Sigh .... I know I can't afford a house in that area, maybe once my wife has a PHD, but it's pretty sad that a people with a good middle case income can't get a house. But I kind of expected that, hence why I want to rent. A condo won't work for us, we don't like the living with others thing, we want a house to ourselves.