Does anyone else see the disaster coming?

DiscoHasBeen

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2016
1,171
262
Indy
It's scary the parts we cannot get to keep our business up and running. We can't get an engine, we can't get parts to fix that engine. We are quoited months out for replacements. We are dam close to stop being a functional busness, and we're government. We have tax dollars to waste.
 
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jastutte

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2009
467
75
we've been running into supply chain issues for over a year. between the effects of the pandemic and the "Great Resignation" production worldwide has taken a hit.

i'm in construction and plumbing parts have been the biggest hold up on jobs. oddly enough, residential shower valves have been the thing holding up multiple jobs. we have had to switch to different branded products in our prep materials as even the largest manufacturers (Schluter Systems) couldn't ship product because they didn't have it.

on a related note, a buddy of mine who has a Gladiator, has been waiting on parts for over 6 months. a car T-Boned him and the body shop can't get parts from Jeep to fix it.
 

terryjm1

Well-known member
Jan 23, 2011
1,490
376
Who would have thought getting old LR parts would be easier than current production vehicles? I’ve ordered from Rovers North, Rimmers, and LR Direct in the past 2 weeks. Everything was in stock.... and shipped quickly.
 
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jastutte

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2009
467
75
Who would have thought getting old LR parts would be easier than current production vehicles? I’ve ordered from Rovers North, Rimmers, and LR Direct in the past 2 weeks. Everything was in stock.... and shipped quickly.
no kidding!

i've done my best not to mention that to him
 

robertf

Well-known member
Jan 22, 2006
4,792
363
-
industrial automation equipment is practically nonexistent right now. Even the automation direct junk is all out of stock
 

ukoffroad

Well-known member
Jan 13, 2010
2,125
169
Lynchburg, Va
Same with tech for Education. We order Chromebooks and laptops and cross our fingers, servers and such are similar. Replacement parts are even worse.
Updating intercoms in one school, the vendor runs out of room units halfway through, a shipment was destroyed in transit and now they are having to give us upgraded units to make the deadlines of a fall start.

We have friends in Maine doing a big addition to their house, they are waiting three months so far for windows, and now an August delivery promised. That is wood and glass, so what gives.
 

Howski

Well-known member
Oct 19, 2009
1,493
211
Alabama
Thought all the prognosticated ‘re-shoring’ of manufacturing post-COVID was supposed to solve all this… We have certainly got ourselves in a pickle and don’t see it fixing itself anytime soon
 

Blue

Well-known member
Mar 26, 2004
10,057
869
AZ
We picked up a Mercedes for my wife last September and she just received a postcard in the mail saying the missing chip was available. It's a chip for navigation, emergency call service, etc. A bunch of stuff she doesn't need but it's surprising that it took 9 months to become available.

I just got off the phone with one of my subs and he's wrapping up an excavation and piping job at a commercial site for me. We both just laughed when I asked when the concrete put-back would be completed. Getting a concrete truck to show up is like playing (and winning) the lottery out here.
 

Blueboy

Well-known member
Apr 20, 2004
3,212
462
Back in the USA; Rockwood, PA
For us it literally is empty selves in grocery store. We live in a rural / farm area so lucky for local produce / beef / pork / chicken / eggs yet the other items are really hit and miss with 3 major stores including Walmart in the area from which to choose. Usually by going from one to another you can find the item. Or buy another brand.
 

rovercanus

Well-known member
Apr 24, 2004
9,651
246
Even the automation direct junk is all out of stock
We use that junk all over our plant. They love that stuff there.
We run so many different PLC's sometimes it's hard to keep up. A lot of the machines there are still running TI 505's. We buy spare parts off of Ebay.
 

MM3846

Well-known member
Feb 18, 2014
1,223
161
LI, NY
Same with tech for Education. We order Chromebooks and laptops and cross our fingers, servers and such are similar. Replacement parts are even worse.
Updating intercoms in one school, the vendor runs out of room units halfway through, a shipment was destroyed in transit and now they are having to give us upgraded units to make the deadlines of a fall start.

We have friends in Maine doing a big addition to their house, they are waiting three months so far for windows, and now an August delivery promised. That is wood and glass, so what gives.

Oh ya. We cancelled a bunch of projects this summer because Crestron is giving us ship dates of Spring 2023 for equipment we ordered in April of this year.
 

terryjm1

Well-known member
Jan 23, 2011
1,490
376
As far as food availability goes, I guess we have been very lucky. It is pretty unusual to go to the grocery store here and not find what we need. For the past 6 months or so I haven’t noticed anything different than pre-pandemic at the grocery stores here.

However, anything (not food) that comes from China is a different story.
 

DiscoHasBeen

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2016
1,171
262
Indy
This all may be nothing compared to what could be coming. Check out any app/site that will disply drought conditions. You'll see the "bread basket" covered in drought conditions. Usually around here the corn is almost head high but this year maybe waist, with a lot not even knee high. Blue and turned leaves. So these farmers are paying astronomical diesel and fertilizer prices, can't find herbicide and fungicide, and now look to have a greatly reduced harvest.
 

Blueboy

Well-known member
Apr 20, 2004
3,212
462
Back in the USA; Rockwood, PA
In W. PA. we say knee high by July and that’s where we are. A lot of the corn is feed corn for livestock. We also get Sweet Corn and Silver Corn from MD. However our fields are very dry right now.
This all may be nothing compared to what could be coming. Check out any app/site that will disply drought conditions. You'll see the "bread basket" covered in drought conditions. Usually around here the corn is almost head high but this year maybe waist, with a lot not even knee high. Blue and turned leaves. So these farmers are paying astronomical diesel and fertilizer prices, can't find herbicide and fungicide, and now look to have a greatly reduced harvest.
 

terryjm1

Well-known member
Jan 23, 2011
1,490
376
Here in NM it was one of the driest springs on record, months with little more than a brief drizzle. Worst fires the state has ever seen. Now, it has rained a lot, almost daily for 2-3 weeks, so far one of the wettest monsoon seasons in a very long time.

That type of cycle makes it really hard not just for farmers but also cattle ranchers. High diesel and fertilizer prices hurt, but this type of weather is a killer.

I have no desire to turn this into a debate, but I suggest talking to an older farmer and rancher about if the climate has changed over the past 50 years. I have spoken to some older ranchers here. They said it has never been this bad (weather extremes that make producing food really difficult and expensive).

I am at high elevation in the forest. It is amazing how many 100 year old trees have died. Older than that is rare as the area was heavily forested about 100 years ago. The town came into existence for logging to supply timber to build El Paso, TX. But, as trees grow really slow here, logging didn’t last long.

I only have an acre of land and have had to remove a dozen dead trees in just the past few years. That doesn’t count all the dead ones I removed when I purchased the property.

is it going to get worse? I don’t know but even if status quo is maintained it is not good at all.
 
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bri

Well-known member
Apr 20, 2004
6,183
153
US
The monsoon cycle that we are in right now was very normal 40 years ago. At least in CO. I dont know the age of trees here, but they are ponderosa. Just from casual research I have about a dozen 100 year old trees and 65ish total on an acre.

Never had any die in 20 years... knock on wood, but we get plenty of snow.

But across the street looks like some are drying or dying. Or worse, beetles.

With that said, we used to get -30F in Feb. Last 5 or so low more around -10. Bad news for trees if they get beetles.