Some thoughts on the current push to federalize the healthcare system ....
Let's consider an alternative perspective. We have all heard how healthcare is becoming a large portion of our GDP, 1/6th by some articles. That the trajectory of healthcare cost are unsustainable. So is the 'cost' of healthcare a cause or a symptom? Let's look beyond the healthcare specific arguments.
As a percent of GDP the Federal government has 'become' the GDP.
Hmmm... 3Q GDP... Goebbels Truth Leaks?
Denninger
"...2.2% eh? I thought it was 2.8%? Or was it 3.5%?...
.... the government's "pump" was responsible for 2.4% GDP "growth" - or more than the entire claimed increase...."
The only State to show significant job growth was ..... District of Columbia. Surprised?
Through Federal stimulus and Fed action the Federal government has become the economy. The public sector simply feeds on Fed printing, not real production of 'goods'. Fed induced easy credit has pulled forward demand and also created a large deficit. Only the private sector can produce real job growth.
For a perspective on debt:
A Short Treatise On The USeless Economy
Denninger
Let's look at real job growth as it would contribute to GDP. Remember, one of the premise of the need for healthcare reform is that it is bankrupting the US, that healthcare is now a large percent of GDP. Whose GDP? The private sector or the government sector. The question should be, What is bankrupting the US? Healthcare, private sector trends or Federal government growth?
Let's review the St. Louis Reserve Bank’s charts published in early December of 2009.
The State of the Union – in charts…
Nathan's Economic Edge
Pay particular attention to the section titled EMPLOYMENT. Let's review a couple of quotes:
"Below is the same chart but from the Fed dating back to the late 1940s. We are currently back to the same percentage [civilian employment population ratio] as we were during the late 1970s:"
"The number of employees producing durable goods is also back to the same numbers that are were found in 1942. Our population then was less than half the size it is now."
"The total number of people manufacturing non durable goods is now the smallest recorded since the Great Depression:"
In summary the Federal government has become the GDP and the number of private sector people actually contributing to real GDP are at WWII levels. It is no wonder that the cost of healthcare has risen as a percent of the Federal government driven GDP. Healthcare cost are not the problem, lack of private sector growth is.
So should we expect reform? That is an emotional subject that results in polarized responses. Let's look outside the US.
Why Is Obama Failing?
Jesse's Caf? Am?ricain
"...."What's costing the president are three things: a laissez faire style of leadership that appears weak and removed to everyday Americans, a failure to articulate and defend any coherent ideological position on virtually anything, and a widespread perception that he cares more about special interests like bank, credit card, oil and coal, and health and pharmaceutical companies than he does about the people they are shafting." Drew Westen, Leadership Obama Style
I think it is more that last of the three than anything else, and explains the others. Obama is captive to special interests, as are many of the key members of the Congress, and the Obama Administration, and the Federal Reserve. And I should add his two predecessors.
It explains why he cannot articulate a coherent ideological position and make it stick. Make no mistake, he is a smart and verbally adept individual, a gifted person intellectually. But he cannot adhere to principles because he has abandoned whatever principles he may have had to serve a variety of corrupting interests. And he appears laissez faire and distant because he is a figurehead, a household servant, and not in control. ......."
As a member of the Ivy League elite Obama is part of the problem. Real reform will come from someone outside the small circle of elite figureheads and those who orchestrate same.
Real healthcare reform may only come once real private sector growth returns and the Federal government returns to a much smaller part of our economy. Until then even the current proposals are doomed to fail because they grow the government even further, further shrink private sector growth and in the end enlarge healthcare as a percent of a federally driven GDP.
Our current healthcare cost issues are a symptom, not a cause.