fosterchild420 said:
the reason filling halfway will not work is the same reason the mass emails about "dont buy gas on xx/xx/08" never works: there is enough in the system that one day is barely a splash in the bucket. You would have to be able to go several weeks (2 to 3) before it would make the reserves build up to a point of being a buyers market. For everyday you dont buy fuel, there are tens of thousands of tractor/trailors, farm tractors, delivery trucks, ect. that have to buy fuel everyday. Trust me: they buy more fuel in a day then us only buying half a tank a week.
further more, i have to fill up once a week when i am working. I dont see how me filling halfway up tuesday night then again friday night is any different from me filling all the way up friday night.
the only way to drive reserves up and therefore drive prices down in with decreased usage: drive less, car pool, public transportation. Out here in the sticks we dont have a reliable form of public transportation so i have to stick with driving less and car pooling whenever i can.
I'm guessing this was at least partly in response to my comment earlier. If so, I guess I was not clear. I am not saying that buying less is any sort of long term solution, I was saying that when prices are on a downward trend, the pump price lags behind the futures price in the speed it falls. In a stable market it is pointless to do the half-fill because the overall price you pay will be the same.
What I was saying is essentially use your gas as a sort of reserve to avoid paying the higher than normal profit margins during the decline. If you fill up 2x a week it's pointless, I agree. However if you go 1-2 weeks between fill ups, AND enough people were to fill this way, it would have the effect of hastening the point of price at the pump matching the wholesale price.
In a stable market say the gas stations make 5 cents per gallon.
Now the price rockets up in the futures market by twenty cents per gallon, the gas station immediatly raise their prices by that twenty cents using the logic that their next tank will cost twenty cents per gallon more. While true, it still means they are making 25 cents per gallon on the gas in the tank, then back to 5 cents per gallon once the new more expensive gas arrives.
Not much you can do about that situation except bend over and take it OR reduce your demand in the long term (ie drive less)
Now on the other side, when prices start to decline the gas stations have gas in their tanks that cost more than the the futures price, but now they hold the line on price using the logic that the gas they are selling was purchased at a higher price and they have to sell that first. So, rather than take into account the extra profit that was made in the initial jump in prices to bring the price down in lock step with the futures market, which would involve a loss on they gas they are selling but would really just even out to the same 5 cent overall profit, they lower it more slowly even as the tanks are replenished with less expensive fuel. The only reason the prices come down at all in this situation are competition from other stations, but no station owner in their right mind would lower more than a few cents less than their neighbor so prices come down much more slowly than they rise.
Profits are higher for a short time when prices are rising and higher for a much longer time when prices are falling.
All I am saying is if enough people use their existing gas as a cushion when prices are falling it will make the price at the pump fall at closer to the same rate as the futures market is falling. This is only applicable when prices are falling, in a stable market or when prices are rising it would have no effect, this whole discussion is really just an expansion of why drillbit was correct is this post.
11-20-2008 04:27 PM Drillbit
dont fill up your cars
buy half tanks till oil levels off
it's headed toward 1.25 at the pump