North Korea...

[msggunny]

Anyone think that lil' Kim will be dumb enough to make a move?

Just thinking about it a lot lately, seems like they picked a rather good time to start shit.

Sequestration, troop reduction DOD wide, internal strife with the "vs Obama" crowd and Dems vs Republicans, US population that is tiring of war, DOD structuring/training that focuses on counter insurgency vs traditional tactics, etc.

I think they chose a good time to ramp it up and see how we handle it. Still not 100% sure they will do something but looking at their mode of thinking and their new leader's immaturity I will not be surprised if they do.

If so its going to be a tough fight, lots and lots of brain washed NK's streaming over the border. I wonder if we have enough ammo for it. I guess Homeland Security will have to give up some of their new stockpile.....

If it does happen, hopefully I will get called off retirement and get to play. Always wanted to shoot a canister round into a mass formation of troops.....

 

[knewsom]

Kim Jong Un is not a fool, he's extremely well educated, grew up in Switzerland, and probably has a more solid world-view than most of us do. However, he is North Korean, and inherited a dictatorship from his father. Put yourself in his shoes - what would you do? Attacking the US is simply suicide. We will smash their war machines in days, and mow their malnourished troops down in a hail of machinegun fire from A10 Warthogs. He knows this, even if most people in his command believe they can win.

He also knows that it is a failed state. Many of his people die every day from starvation. ...and there is no way out of this without eating a massive amount of crow. Perhaps the most important cultural factor here is Face - in East Asia, it's perhaps more important than Honor was purported to be in Medieval Europe. There's also the statistical likelihood that conflict is unavoidable. How can NK survive as a nation in these circumstances? They're two aid shipments away from complete collapse, and facing an enemy they have no hope of destroying. Dismantling their country and opening it up to democracy is not an option - it would mean admitting defeat.

I see two possibilities, given the recent insanity. 1, they punt. As soon as our ships head home from the war-games, they declare victory over the Western Aggressor, consolidate young KJU's power in NK, then quietly come back to the negotiating table for more aid.

The second possibility is nearly as plausible in my mind, and far more terrifying. The second possibility is they attack us, knowing full well they will not win. They do this knowing we will destroy what they have built, liberate their people, and build a new, unified and prosperous Korea. I believe Kim Jong Un may see this as not only an eventuality, but their only way out while saving face. They've gone too far to go back. The fire is the only way for the Phoenix to rise again.

 

[JohnB]

Looking at the range of scope if they do in fact try to reach Alaska more then likely the bomb would drop over Russia. There is no chance they could hit Hawaii.

 

[D Chapman]

South Korea could beat their ass without us. I was reading somewhere that NK only has like 30 days of gas reserves with no way of obtaining more. It would be a short "war".

 

[Eliot]

The joint industrial facility at Keasong remains open, as long as that is true I would discount the possibility of war. Their need for hard currency is their first priority, if that shifts... well.

The DPRK has cut all lines of communication though. That increases the risk of an escalation scenario, and that's something we should take very seriously. This could easily get out of hand.

I assume Kim is burnishing his military credentials. The DPRK hasn't practiced for general war in more than twenty years, they lack the capacity to invade the south (which is why they've turned towards ICBMs). Kim needs some sort of victory that he can take back to the generals, and importantly to the people. He has little credibility within the armed services and his hold on power is still quite weak. An entire corp of the KPA revolted when his father took power and Kim is playing an even weaker hand.

 

[kennith]

The second possibility is nearly as plausible in my mind, and far more terrifying. The second possibility is they attack us, knowing full well they will not win. They do this knowing we will destroy what they have built, liberate their people, and build a new, unified and prosperous Korea. I believe Kim Jong Un may see this as not only an eventuality, but their only way out while saving face. They've gone too far to go back. The fire is the only way for the Phoenix to rise again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mouse_That_Roared

Cheers,

Kennith

 

[Timmy!!!!!!!]

I think North Korea is going to invade Spokane, Washington.

 

[leeawalden]

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=3a8_1362925707


Pretty crazy.

Also the nat geo documentary that's on Netflix (or YouTube can't remember) is nuts.

 

[61rover]

Don't worry. Barry will protect us.

 

[Corprin]

If so its going to be a tough fight, lots and lots of brain washed NK's streaming over the border. I wonder if we have enough ammo for it. I guess Homeland Security will have to give up some of their new stockpile.....

Have no fear, I have seen the metric shit-ton of munitions prepositioned for such an occasion.

 

[1920SF]

What if he is doing it to shore up his weak control internally? What better way to galvanize people and determine degrees of loyalty than to manufacture crisis.

I don't think he is doing this from a position of strength, rather its from weakness.
Dan's comments about how long it would last and their prospects for success are dead on. Cold comfort for people living in Seoul though...

 

[Colin hughes]

Just like his father, they rattle the sword as a way of keeping face but getting the aid they need.
Not to worry, if they attack, us Canucks up north will protect you

 

[msggunny]

What if he is doing it to shore up his weak control internally? What better way to galvanize people and determine degrees of loyalty than to manufacture crisis.

I don't think he is doing this from a position of strength, rather its from weakness.
Dan's comments about how long it would last and their prospects for success are dead on. Cold comfort for people living in Seoul though...

Yeah, NK doesnt have the legs to go too long logistically. Im more worried about the "resolve" of its populace. China wont be bailing them out this time but I still have a sneaky suspicion that their propaganda machine has made extremists out of a large portion of their military and even their civillian population.

Ive heard lots about how once the rounds start flying that there will be a huge humanitarian crisis as they surrender en-masse and the peasants stream south for a better life. I dont know if that will happen, dont discount the power of propaganda.

 

[Some Dude]

I think North Korea is going to invade Spokane, Washington.

No problem. The crackheads will keep them at bay.

 

[RBBailey]

Hu.... it's all nice and fluffy to feel secure in the idea that we could beat N. Korea, but no one seems to remember China.

I'm confused and frustrated by our posturing against N. Korea. All that is missing is the odd propaganda videos of our bombers hitting a paper cut out of Kim Jong-un. They know very well that we are obligated to defend S. Korea, leave it at that. The saber rattling is mere escalation, as if we are egging them on.

And to think the way people were freaking out about Bush warning Iran to behave.

 

[Eliot]

I suspect the exercises are designed to comfort the Japanese and the Koreans, the admiral said as much last week.

 

[knewsom]

These exercises are not exactly a new thing... this has been happening for many years.

As for China, part of me actually expects them to insist on cleaning up their own mess at some point.

 

[RBBailey]

The exercises and such are nothing new, it's the whole flourish and style thing that is getting me this go around. It feels a lot like we are producing our own North Korean propaganda and throwing it back in their faces. I think we should be handling it a lot more frankly and professional -- low flying B-2 in broad daylight, destroyers at full speed across the splashing waves -- a lot of show, not so much realistic partnership exercises to prove we are ready for anything.

China is mobilizing against us right now, because of our posturing against N. Korea.

 

[knewsom]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if BHO had a little red "R" next to his name instead of a little blue "D", you'd be playing a different tune entirely, or no tune at all.

 

[ArmyRover]

I almost think China is moving more forces to secure the boarder not to get involved but to keep a shit ton of North Koreans from flooding their country.