Roulette is all about the max allowable bet.
If you can afford to double your bet every time until you win, you will come out ahead.
Moab closed...
- Thread starter DiscoHasBeen
- Start date
Roulette is all about the max allowable bet.
If you can afford to double your bet every time until you win, you will come out ahead.
I understand your perspectives much better now. On the 2 million criminals, I can’t argue they have committed the crime of crossing illegally. From what I have seen for the vast majority, crossing illegally is the only crime they are guilty of or likely ever will be. I would like to point out a lot of low skill jobs otherwise unfilled are being taken by former illegal migrants on valid work visas around here. Fast food restaurants here really struggle to fill openings and have limited hours due to that issue. Fast food is an entry level job. i like Del Taco (I know I shouldn’t) and the kitchen is visible from the front counter. A handful of times over the past couple years (I order on the app) I have gone to the front counter and no one was there. When I get the attention of a kitchen employee, in most cases, they do not speak English. They walk into the back of the restaurant and bring out someone that speaks English. Four people working, but only one that speaks English. Fast food restaurants here pay $12 an hour, FWIW.
This next statement is hearsay, as I heard from a friend that works with border patrol… well over 2/3rds of those illegal migrants are women and children with a very large percentage being children. I don’t want to get into the discussion of how it should be handled, clearly it is a crisis that needs solutions for which I have yet to hear one from a politician that would realistically be effective. I also can’t argue they are desperate or they wouldn’t be there to begin with. But, I just wont allow it to stop me from enjoying our public lands or stop me from visiting areas adjacent to the border as I don’t believe violent crime or crimes against persons is really much more likely than any other city or national park. (That is my opinion for which I can provide statistics to support and to the best of my ability to validate have standing.)
I also like to believe, growing up in St. Louis, I am pretty situationally aware. For example, I attended a lot of Cardinals baseball games, Blues hockey games, and formerly Rams football games. When I was younger I wasn’t as careful and chose the cheap parking lots. On one occasion of many visits downtown, my car was broken into and the change in the ashtray was stolen. I stopped parking in the cheap parking lots after that and didn’t have a problem. One time I took the metro rail from the airport late at night. I witnessed a crime on the train. I no longer take the metro late at night. I haven’t had any experiences like that here, so close to the border. But, my time here is a much more small sample size. Crime is a real problem in downtown St. Louis and immigration and immigrants have zero to do with it. I also work side by side with law enforcement for 27 years. I have seen a fair amount of crime and who commits those crimes. One that really stands out (random thought) was the person that was stabbed repeatedly for eating his friend’s leftover fried chicken. It has just really embedded in my brain for some reason.
However, to each their own. This post started out with the point public lands for recreation are becoming harder to find. That is likely true to an extent but I argue there are still great options near the border and far from it. Lol, the fewer that avoid the ones close to the border, the more room I will have. I really don’t like to be in crowded places, generally speaking. It’s why I chose to retire here among many other reasons.
Also, something happened recently that was a bit of a head scratcher for me. The state patrol set up a sobriety check point (not a holiday) just outside the local tourist village on the highway. Seeing as the village essentially shuts down at 6:00 PM a sobriety check point at 8:00 PM 30 miles from a meaningful population seemed like a misuse of resources. There is very little traffic here at night. I take my son to Karate classes in Alamogordo and as such travel regularly at night on that highway, dodging elk. When I approached the checkpoint I rolled down my window and the trooper simply asked if I had anything to drink. I replied, “no” and he immediately sent me on my way. I kind of doubt the only goal was checking sobriety.
Looks like I lied, I didn’t “100% stop.”
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I don’t know what he was doing but he came out WAY ahead, He also played black jack, which I do understand how he did so well.
Just called and talked to Tom at the visitor center. No problems with crimes in the area. Too remote.
I will be getting the camper ready. Will pack the telescope. Got a bit of outfitting to do on the camper in the next couple of weeks. There are some sites that do not allow booking until 14 weeks out, so that will be our choice.
IMO crime is directly proportional to population. More people, more crime. Pretty sure it is fact, but I will call it my opinion. 2M more criminals taking money aways from americans is a pity. Especially when there are tons of american citizens (veterans even) that are homeless and without jobs. None of this is going to bode well for American cities which are already crapholes. The amount of cash that Americans are forking out for these criminals is appauling.
I challenge anyone to attempt walking across a port of entry of any nation like they are at Eagle Pass. Its plain dumb.
I will be getting the camper ready. Will pack the telescope. Got a bit of outfitting to do on the camper in the next couple of weeks. There are some sites that do not allow booking until 14 weeks out, so that will be our choice.
IMO crime is directly proportional to population. More people, more crime. Pretty sure it is fact, but I will call it my opinion. 2M more criminals taking money aways from americans is a pity. Especially when there are tons of american citizens (veterans even) that are homeless and without jobs. None of this is going to bode well for American cities which are already crapholes. The amount of cash that Americans are forking out for these criminals is appauling.
I challenge anyone to attempt walking across a port of entry of any nation like they are at Eagle Pass. Its plain dumb.
14 weeks. LOL. 14 DAYS is what I meant.
Looking forward to this. I need to see what timing is for my wife. She gets IVIG once a month so I may have to wait for her next treatment so that I have a few weeks, I'd like a week there. I'll have to practice accessing her port too, incase she cannot keep food fluids down (fun eh?).
With starlink, perhaps I will only need to take a couple of days "off" of work! ;-)
Looking forward to this. I need to see what timing is for my wife. She gets IVIG once a month so I may have to wait for her next treatment so that I have a few weeks, I'd like a week there. I'll have to practice accessing her port too, incase she cannot keep food fluids down (fun eh?).
With starlink, perhaps I will only need to take a couple of days "off" of work! ;-)
I had lightning in a bottle for about 90 minutes at Mandalay Bay back in '21. Playing family birth dates at roulette. About ten numbers with $5 on each per spin. I started with $100 and left with $1700 when I had to take a leak.
I've come out ahead using that system since then, but that was a once-in-a-lifetime run for me, I think.
Having lived in Switzerland and Brazil you are 1000% correct. The borders are very well protected. As is the surrounding area by the checkpoints. Our Southern Border is a fucking joke. Our Euro friends ask us what is going on with your Border?
We also lived in Japan yet that Border is pretty secure naturally.
I take credit for further derailing this thread. Statistically, I think big bend NP likely has few "illegal" problems and I thing Tom at the visitor center has no reason to not tell me the truth. He actuall seemed a bit insulted/defensive about my question of safety.... I like that. BB national park has 118 of 571 miles of BB Sectors border. About 12k encounters happened in the sector in 2023, so statistically the park could have seen about 2500 encounters (6 per day), but much is impassable and there are no cities or highways on the US side of the border. I think I am not worried.
The rest of the border is nightmare.
Here are some stats. You should fact check your friend.... just kidding.
Single Adults are 1.5-2x any other demographic.
The solution to the problem is easy. Impeach the liar that calls himself United States Secretary of Homeland Security, remove from office POTUS. These guys and all their PR lie to your face that they doing everything they can and says these immigration problems are not unique to the USA. The press secretary is just laughable. I cannot believe that someone that is 50 is so dang stupid. I can't believe she can fall asleep at night with all of her lies floating around that pea brain.
Stop attempting to pass immigration reforms with added pork. Sanction MX, enforce the border with armed individuals with cuffs, zipties, drones and start making them prove they need shelter from danger. No putting off hearings until 2035. Sanctions on MX should stay in place until MX stops the flow of drugs and people into the US and gets cartels under control. These sanctions should also include protection of immigrants that are "valid". Change asylum law. Climate change is not a valid reason to seek asylum in the USA.
In 2020 there were about 10.5M unauthorized immigrates.
What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S.
The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States reached 10.5 million in 2021. That was a modest increase over 2019 but nearly identical to 2017.
www.pewresearch.org
From 2021-2023, the number of border encounters was rougly 6.6M. Likely will will set a record this year so it will go to about 9.6M 2021-2024. If we use a conservative estimate that CBP refuses entry of 50% of the encounters (more likely it is about 30%), we will have about a 50% increase in unauthorized immigrants in 4 years.
What has happened in the past 4 years. What might have something to do with our southern border? Who ended Title-42? Title-42 exemptions started on inaugaration day.
Who issued "la invatacion"?
INTERVIEW | Todd Bensman on How Biden's 'La Invitacion' to Illegal Aliens Triggered Border Crisis
In 2021, Todd Bensman stood on the edge of the Rio Grande River with a cartel member. Despite usually trying to avoid the cartels, Bensman found himself interviewing the man, who happened to be on vacation after guiding a group of illegal aliens into Texas. “He had his cocaine. He had a couple...
play.acast.com
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I think that I finally learned what you meant by this. There is Big Bend Sector and Big Bend National Park. Clearly I was not talking about big bend sector in this thread, but you were.
Having lived in Switzerland and Brazil you are 1000% correct. The borders are very well protected. As is the surrounding area by the checkpoints. Our Southern Border is a fucking joke. Our Euro friends ask us what is going on with your Border?
We also lived in Japan yet that Border is pretty secure naturally.
I think that it is interesting that more of my international colleagues ask "WTH is wrong with the USA" in the past 4 years than ever prior. Primarily EU and SE Asia.
This is 100% opinion here forward.
It is definitely a crisis. I also believe we need to focus on it as two completely different issues. One is illegal drug smuggling and the other is asylum seekers, Both are a major crisis that should not be used as a political tool or rallying cry. Lumping them together just inspires division and dehumanizes public perception of migrants. I cannot allow myself to see the the vast majority of migrants as anything other than human beings in need. Obviously, what is happening now, before 2020, or for that matter for decades has not addressed the issue in an acceptable nor effective humanitarian manner. Drug smugglers, that is a very different story for me. The problem there is Americans are a huge part of the drug smuggling problem.
I believe the real problem is both Republican and Democrat politicians do not offer workable solutions. Their solutions, and this is the voters’ fault, are not really solutions at all but are really just what they believe voters want to hear.
Democrats are pretty much stuck with Biden as the nominee whether they want him or not. While many voters, in my opinion, don’t really want Biden, they are going to hold their nose and vote for him if the other option is Trump. If it was someone else, I think a large number would just take the election off. Frankly, I think Democratic strategists really want Trump to be the Republican nominee simply because many Democrats will use their vote against Trump more so than for Biden.. And, I believe many independents and swing voters in general will do the same thing. I don’t think anyone should disagree that Trump gets people to vote on both sides and in the middle. While some say the massive voter totals of the last election were significantly boosted due to voter fraud, I don’t think so. I think Trump simply motivates more people to vote across the board. If you are of the mindset that the voter totals were so high due to voter fraud, you should note they were high on both sides. Even the Republican funded audits have shown only limited voter fraud…on both sides.
Republicans at least have a choice but it seems as of now it’s just going to be a replay of the last election, which in my opinion is absolutely unacceptable and truly mystifying. I really expected, foolishly it seems, Republicans would go in a different direction this election. i really believed the next president would come from the Republican side, It still could happen but it doesn’t look like it will. I really believe if the Republican nominee was a more moderate conservative a huge number of swing voters, some centrist democrats, and a huge number of independents would go that way and as I said before many centrist democrats would take the election off. I believe a lot of Democrats took the election off in 2016 because many didn’t think Trump had a chance to win and others just couldn’t vote for Hillary. With that experience now a lesson learned, I do not believe it will happen again if Trump is the nominee. I do not believe the next election will be determined by who voters support the most, it will be about voting against the person they like the least. Frankly, in my opinion, Trump as the nominee gives Biden the best chance to win. I believe Trump as the Republican nominee is Biden’s only chance to win.
I will close with I really like this forum and part of that is a lack of politics. I do apologize and will from here forward refrain from making political comments, even the neutral ones I believe I have shared above.
It is definitely a crisis. I also believe we need to focus on it as two completely different issues. One is illegal drug smuggling and the other is asylum seekers, Both are a major crisis that should not be used as a political tool or rallying cry. Lumping them together just inspires division and dehumanizes public perception of migrants. I cannot allow myself to see the the vast majority of migrants as anything other than human beings in need. Obviously, what is happening now, before 2020, or for that matter for decades has not addressed the issue in an acceptable nor effective humanitarian manner. Drug smugglers, that is a very different story for me. The problem there is Americans are a huge part of the drug smuggling problem.
I believe the real problem is both Republican and Democrat politicians do not offer workable solutions. Their solutions, and this is the voters’ fault, are not really solutions at all but are really just what they believe voters want to hear.
Democrats are pretty much stuck with Biden as the nominee whether they want him or not. While many voters, in my opinion, don’t really want Biden, they are going to hold their nose and vote for him if the other option is Trump. If it was someone else, I think a large number would just take the election off. Frankly, I think Democratic strategists really want Trump to be the Republican nominee simply because many Democrats will use their vote against Trump more so than for Biden.. And, I believe many independents and swing voters in general will do the same thing. I don’t think anyone should disagree that Trump gets people to vote on both sides and in the middle. While some say the massive voter totals of the last election were significantly boosted due to voter fraud, I don’t think so. I think Trump simply motivates more people to vote across the board. If you are of the mindset that the voter totals were so high due to voter fraud, you should note they were high on both sides. Even the Republican funded audits have shown only limited voter fraud…on both sides.
Republicans at least have a choice but it seems as of now it’s just going to be a replay of the last election, which in my opinion is absolutely unacceptable and truly mystifying. I really expected, foolishly it seems, Republicans would go in a different direction this election. i really believed the next president would come from the Republican side, It still could happen but it doesn’t look like it will. I really believe if the Republican nominee was a more moderate conservative a huge number of swing voters, some centrist democrats, and a huge number of independents would go that way and as I said before many centrist democrats would take the election off. I believe a lot of Democrats took the election off in 2016 because many didn’t think Trump had a chance to win and others just couldn’t vote for Hillary. With that experience now a lesson learned, I do not believe it will happen again if Trump is the nominee. I do not believe the next election will be determined by who voters support the most, it will be about voting against the person they like the least. Frankly, in my opinion, Trump as the nominee gives Biden the best chance to win. I believe Trump as the Republican nominee is Biden’s only chance to win.
I will close with I really like this forum and part of that is a lack of politics. I do apologize and will from here forward refrain from making political comments, even the neutral ones I believe I have shared above.
All this discussion about the security of visiting a national park adjacent to another country brings back some childhood memories.
When I lived in Zimbabwe in the early eighties I took a trip to the Gonerazhou area before it became a transfrontier national park. I rode in the back of a Land Cruiser FJ45 along with a Series III that had no doors. At the entrance our group declared our rifles and was instructed by the government staff to shoot at poachers. We didn't see any poachers (but found meat drying racks and destroyed them).
Our first afternoon we went fishing on the banks of the river and who walks up but a bunch of RENAMO soldiers (revolutionary group trying to overthrow Mozambique's government) with AK-47s. They explained they were using the park as a base of operations from which to launch their guerrilla attacks across the border. They just wanted us to know they were in the area and what parts of the park to avoid. We gave them a case of beer and they left us alone. I was more worried about the lions that circled our camp at night.
At that age I didn't have the experience to appreciate the risk of going on a game-viewing safari in the midst of an active guerrilla war zone, but those were different times. There are parts of Mozambique I wouldn't visit today.
Edit: here's a photo from the last time I crossed into Mozambique in 2015. Parts of that country are amazing. I'd love to spend more time there.
And from the Tembe side. Nothing like a sundowner G & T on the bonnet of a Series 1.
When I lived in Zimbabwe in the early eighties I took a trip to the Gonerazhou area before it became a transfrontier national park. I rode in the back of a Land Cruiser FJ45 along with a Series III that had no doors. At the entrance our group declared our rifles and was instructed by the government staff to shoot at poachers. We didn't see any poachers (but found meat drying racks and destroyed them).
Our first afternoon we went fishing on the banks of the river and who walks up but a bunch of RENAMO soldiers (revolutionary group trying to overthrow Mozambique's government) with AK-47s. They explained they were using the park as a base of operations from which to launch their guerrilla attacks across the border. They just wanted us to know they were in the area and what parts of the park to avoid. We gave them a case of beer and they left us alone. I was more worried about the lions that circled our camp at night.
At that age I didn't have the experience to appreciate the risk of going on a game-viewing safari in the midst of an active guerrilla war zone, but those were different times. There are parts of Mozambique I wouldn't visit today.
Edit: here's a photo from the last time I crossed into Mozambique in 2015. Parts of that country are amazing. I'd love to spend more time there.
And from the Tembe side. Nothing like a sundowner G & T on the bonnet of a Series 1.
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Just a little perspective. Glad you enjoyed it. If I didn't have to work full time I'd finish writing my book about the crazy adventures I've had. If I didn't own Land Rovers I might have the free time in which to do it. Then again, a good portion of these adventures came about because I own Land Rovers.
Yeah but there's that invisible line to be toed otherwise the thread gets locked and we no longer have a ball to play with
" We gave them a case of beer and they left us alone."
I have a friend that rides (or used to, have not talked to him in a couple of years) a motorcyle anually from San Jose CA to Ecuador. Since there really is no way to defend yourself with a weapon, he always loads up with tools and beer. He has run into all kinds of people and hassles and those two things always seemed to get him through.
I have a friend that rides (or used to, have not talked to him in a couple of years) a motorcyle anually from San Jose CA to Ecuador. Since there really is no way to defend yourself with a weapon, he always loads up with tools and beer. He has run into all kinds of people and hassles and those two things always seemed to get him through.
OK, back to Moab.
Like I said, in general it sucks these days. But I have done so many trails out there with my old D1, I am happy not doing anything truely difficult technically and would really search for places that offer more solitude.
I really want to do white rim and I think that my stock LR4 would handle it no problemo. BUT....
I have not done it and it is long. I know if the LR4 has a problem I am stuck no matter what, so that is what to plan for worst case.
Although I cannot guarantee it, I do not think that I will break something and if I am cautious on weather and have time should not get permanently stuck.
I have tried to contact a few of the companies that take you in but none will commit to guiding me and my LR4 (crazy it seems).
So I am thinking, perhaps do it with a guide so that I learn the roads and understand what I am getting into, then do it solo in the LR4, with perhaps a satelite phone.
The other idea is just to wait for a pefect day, blow through it in a day, then after experiencing it go back with a few days to explore.
Anyone done it or have any advice?
Like I said, in general it sucks these days. But I have done so many trails out there with my old D1, I am happy not doing anything truely difficult technically and would really search for places that offer more solitude.
I really want to do white rim and I think that my stock LR4 would handle it no problemo. BUT....
I have not done it and it is long. I know if the LR4 has a problem I am stuck no matter what, so that is what to plan for worst case.
Although I cannot guarantee it, I do not think that I will break something and if I am cautious on weather and have time should not get permanently stuck.
I have tried to contact a few of the companies that take you in but none will commit to guiding me and my LR4 (crazy it seems).
So I am thinking, perhaps do it with a guide so that I learn the roads and understand what I am getting into, then do it solo in the LR4, with perhaps a satelite phone.
The other idea is just to wait for a pefect day, blow through it in a day, then after experiencing it go back with a few days to explore.
Anyone done it or have any advice?