Not a chance. My vote is for about $75m. The potential buyer pool isn't wearing Lee jeans and the North Face. It's Seven jeans and Patagonia. Land Rover knows this.
They'd be falling into a trap.
Land Rover needs to sell to people with a fair amount of money, but the sort of people willing to spend that much and would spend it on a
Defender are shopping in segments that didn't exist before. It'll make waves regardless of price and performance for a while, but the Defender is going to need to back up it's price with substance by the end of it's second year on sale.
If it can't, the company will end up with an extremely top-heavy product line (on their way already), which wouldn't be so big of a deal if the models weren't clustered so closely together and largely identical in function. Here's what Land Rover is telling people starting next model year, if your prediction is correct:
"Pick a card; any card. Or just nut the fuck up and buy a Range Rover..."
The odd man out is the Evoque. It's priced in a different segment, built to suit a specific purpose, and people love it. It's lonely, though. Land Rover needs an "Evoque Alternative". A solid Defender line could hover in that area, and bring in those lifestyle sales. It would also keep it in the running as a useful vehicle, and if they can crack that market again with an innovative take on the idea, it would only be good for them.
It's not the douche-bags running around in Patagonia catalogs they need to keep an eye on; it's the guys that are about to spend the next five years making payments on a pickup truck or Rubicon they'll never use to capacity, and the other guys about to walk in and write a check for one without batting an eye. They don't have that segment of the wealthy right now, and they should.
Heritage isn't enough; not in the long term. They're doing well now, but they need a good strategy to hit a foundational segment and in the process ensure the survival of the brand. That segment is stylish utility, and it can't be floundering about at the same price as everything else they offer; not when they offer so many models with so little distinction between them.
Cheers,
Kennith