This is an impossible question to answer. Clearly your posts indicate that you are a smart man & know this.
I think the point is, that while economics is not a perfect science, we can identify trends & review the historical record. Again, given the choice as outlined in my post above, we are far better off maintaining the free flow of goods, services, capital (and yes, jobs) than allowing politicians to restrict it & dictate those flows. When we blur the boundaries surrounding these two choices, we typically end up with socialism, whether it's called "the third way", "social democracy", etc. This socialism is inevitably maintained by our tax dollars and decisions made by those often least qualified to make them.
I think the point is, that while economics is not a perfect science, we can identify trends & review the historical record. Again, given the choice as outlined in my post above, we are far better off maintaining the free flow of goods, services, capital (and yes, jobs) than allowing politicians to restrict it & dictate those flows. When we blur the boundaries surrounding these two choices, we typically end up with socialism, whether it's called "the third way", "social democracy", etc. This socialism is inevitably maintained by our tax dollars and decisions made by those often least qualified to make them.